Dear reader,
Last Tuesday, the Trump administration committed $2 billion to nine quantum computing companies and took minority equity stakes in each one in return.
The stocks moved 25–33% in a single session. Then the news cycle moved on.
I didn't. Because I've seen this playbook before.
When Governments Bet on Technology, Pay Attention
When governments take equity stakes in technology companies, they're not making a financial bet - they're making a strategic declaration.
They're saying this technology is too important to leave to market forces alone. They're guaranteeing demand, removing regulatory risk, and signaling to every institutional investor on earth that this sector has official backing.
They used this exact framework with semiconductors. The CHIPS Act stake in Intel (INTC) has generated over $40 billion in unrealized gains for US taxpayers.
Before that, Westinghouse nuclear. Before that, rare earth miners.
Every time, the investors who understood what the government was actually signaling - before it became obvious - made serious money. Quantum just joined that list.
Why I Changed My Mind on Quantum This Year
Now, I'll be honest with you. I've been watching quantum computing for years and kept it in the "fascinating but not yet investable" category for most of that time. The technology was real, but the timelines were vague. The hardware was impressive, but the commercial applications felt distant. Three things changed my mind this year.
The first is what I just described - the government's $2 billion commitment tells me the people with access to classified technology assessments have decided quantum is ready. That matters more to me than any analyst report.
The second is that in 2024, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized post-quantum cryptography standards, effectively mandating that every bank, government agency, and enterprise in America overhaul their encryption infrastructure. That's not optional. That's compliance-driven demand that exists today, regardless of where the hardware timeline sits.
The third - and this is the one almost nobody is writing about - the world's first full-stack quantum company is pricing its IPO this week. Quantinuum (QNT), backed by Honeywell (HON), Nvidia (NVDA), and JPMorgan (JPM), filed for its Nasdaq listing last Wednesday. The order book is already oversubscribed before it even prices.
The Stocks, The Thesis, and the Opportunity
All week I'm going to walk you through exactly what I see in this sector - the companies worth watching, the layer of the market nobody is talking about, and why I think the most interesting quantum play isn't even one of the nine names the government announced.
I'm sharing the full thesis, including specific stocks, at a live event this Thursday at 5pm ET. If you want to understand this opportunity before it becomes the obvious trade, that's where to be.
The Quantum Moment: What the government's $2B bet means for your portfolio - and the specific stocks I'm watching right now:
Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research
P.S. One quantum company is pricing its IPO this week. Two more are filing to go public before the end of the year. I don't think that's a coincidence and I'll explain exactly what it means on Thursday.
