Heading into last night, there was hope the President would bring clarity - maybe even a path toward de-escalation or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, we got more of the same rhetoric, and the market is reacting exactly how you’d expect.
The speech leaned heavily on familiar talking points - highlighting military “successes” while offering no clear strategy for how this conflict actually ends. And that’s exactly what spooked the market:
No timeline. No roadmap. No exit strategy.
A warning that military action could continue - or even intensify - in the coming weeks.
Mixed messaging, calling the war “near completion” while signaling more strikes ahead.
Silence on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical arteries for global energy supply.
The result? More uncertainty at a time when investors were hoping for less.
And we all know - markets hate uncertainty.
Risk-Off Hits Fast
That’s why you’re seeing oil spike aggressively, equities sell off, and global markets move into full risk-off mode. It’s not just about what was said - it’s about what wasn’t said.
Because right now, the biggest question remains unanswered:
What does the end of this look like?
Futures fell immediately following the speech, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to open down more than 1.5%.
On the other side of the trade is oil - surging nearly 10% in one of the biggest war-driven spikes we’ve seen. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin are both selling off.
The risk-off move is global. Asia and Europe were sharply lower, and with a long weekend ahead plus escalating military tensions, investors are understandably pulling back.
The bigger picture hasn’t changed either. The recent two-day bounce looked encouraging, but it hasn’t broken the broader downtrend.
We’ve Seen This Before
One year ago, Trump went on television with another major speech that spooked the market - we now refer to that as Liberation Day.
It’s been 12 months since the introduction of a widespread tariff plan that sent stocks to 52-week lows and nearly into a bear market.
And yet - even with that panic and recent pullback - stocks are higher by more than 30% since those lows.
Now remember, we have the same president today. The same bold style. The same headline-grabbing comments.
What we heard last night isn’t much different than what we heard last April.
Investors panicked then - and they’re repeating the same pattern now.
Don’t Let Panic Dictate Your Strategy
Sure, you can argue this time is different. Oil is surging. Geopolitical tensions are escalating. And there’s real uncertainty around how this ends.
But we’ve seen this playbook before.
Big, bold comments… followed by something far less extreme… and markets recovering after the initial overreaction.
I’m not saying today marks the bottom of this pullback.
What I am saying is this:
Panic-selling ahead of a long weekend is rarely the right move.
Instead, get ready.
Because the coming days and weeks could present opportunities to buy great companies at a discount - and a year from now, you’ll likely be glad you stayed level-headed during a Trump-induced selloff.
Have a great Easter weekend.
Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research
