SpaceX (SPCX) is trading above a $2 trillion valuation.
Quantinuum (QNT) just had the biggest quantum IPO in history.
Both debuts went well. And I want to tell you, plainly, what I expect to happen next - because if the last 15 years are any guide, it won't be a straight line up.
The 15-Year Pattern Nobody Talks About
Go back and look at almost every mega-IPO since 2012, and you'll find the same story repeating, just with different names.
Facebook (2012): Priced at $38 - lost roughly half its value within months
Snap (2017): Popped on debut - fell more than 60% within its first year
Uber (2019): Worst first-day dollar loss of any US IPO ever - then lost over half its value within the year
Snowflake (2020): More than doubled on day one - gave back a large chunk within 12 months
Coinbase (2021): Debuted near a $100B valuation - fell over 80% within the year
Rivian (2021): Tripled in days - now trades roughly 85% below its offering price
DiDi (2021): One of the biggest IPOs ever - market cap fell from $75B to $11B within 11 months
Every mega-IPO of the last 15 years has gone through a brutal first-year pullback.
Not most of them. Every one.
Why Does This Happen So Consistently?
A few structural reasons. Early lockup periods expire and insiders sell. The hype that drove the first-day pop fades as the market shifts from "story" to "numbers." Broader market conditions change - interest rates, sector rotations, macro headlines - and high-valuation names get hit hardest because they have the most room to fall.
None of this is a verdict on whether the underlying company is good. Facebook (Meta) is now up roughly 550% from its IPO price.
Uber is roughly double its IPO price after years of recovery. The pullback was real - and so was the eventual outcome.
What This Means for SpaceX and Quantinuum
If history holds, both could see significant pullbacks over the next several months - maybe even sharp ones. That's not a reason to avoid the space and quantum themes. It's a reason to be patient, and to think carefully about where you have exposure.
This is exactly why I built my Space Economy portfolio the way I did. I didn't put subscribers directly into SpaceX - I built around the supply chain, the companies that benefit from the broader buildout regardless of what the flagship stock does on any given week.
And even that portfolio went through its own version of this pattern on a smaller scale: it ran up more than 50% in its first few weeks, then pulled back and gave back a portion of the gains. The good news is that while broader space ETFs fell into negative territory – the Space Economy portfolio is still up double-digits.
Same pattern. Smaller scale. And it didn't change anything about the thesis.
The investors who make the most money over time aren't the ones who time the bottom perfectly. They're the ones who don't panic-sell during the pullback everyone should have expected.
Where I'll Be Positioning
This Thursday, I'm going live to talk about exactly this - how I'm thinking about volatility in SpaceX and Quantinuum over the next 6 to 12 months, and where I see steadier opportunities across the broader space economy supply chain.
If the next several months bring the kind of pullback history suggests, I want you to be positioned to see it as an opportunity, not a reason to panic.
To your future success,
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research
P.S. - Seven mega-IPOs. Seven brutal first-year pullbacks. Some of those companies became some of the best investments of the decade anyway. Tomorrow I'll show you how I'm positioning for both the volatility and the opportunity - including the four stocks I told subscribers about in May.
