$11 Billion in 6 Days... Follow the Money

War is tragic.

But from an economic perspective, it triggers one of the most powerful spending cycles in the world: military rearmament.

And that cycle is already underway.

According to Pentagon briefings to Congress, the first six days of the war with Iran cost the United States more than $11 billion.

That is an extraordinary burn rate.

Even more shocking is how quickly weapons inventories are being depleted. Defense officials say $5.6 billion worth of munitions were used in just the first two days of combat.

Think about that for a moment.

Two days.

More than $5 billion in missiles, interceptors, and advanced weapons systems.

And that is only the beginning.

Wars don’t just drive spending during the conflict.

They create years of demand afterward.

Eventually needs to be replaced.

Analysts already expect a massive global restocking cycle for missiles, air defenses, and ammunition once this conflict stabilizes.

And that demand won’t come only from the United States.

Countries around the world are watching this war unfold and realizing the same thing: their own stockpiles are dangerously low.

That means governments everywhere are likely to increase defense budgets.

In fact, global military spending already surged to $2.7 trillion, and the top defense contractors are seeing demand surge as conflicts escalate.

This is the beginning of what many analysts are calling a defense supercycle.

One of the easiest ways to identify winners is simple:

Look at the weapons being used in the conflict.

Early estimates suggest that in the first 72 hours of the war the U.S. deployed roughly 2,000 munitions including cruise missiles and missile defense interceptors.

These include systems like:

Those systems are produced by a handful of large defense contractors.

And many of those companies are already seeing their stocks rise as investors anticipate a long restocking cycle.

Major defense firms like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX (RTX) have all moved higher in recent weeks as the conflict escalated.

Defense ETFs are also outperforming the broader market as investors rotate into the sector for geopolitical protection.

At this point, no one knows how this war will end—or when.

And that uncertainty alone is likely to keep oil prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

Yesterday, I sat down with my old Fox News colleague Tracy Byrnes to discuss the war, oil prices, the market reaction, and what investors should be paying attention to next.

👉 Click Here To Watch This Week’s Market Insights Episode

Here’s the key point most investors are missing.

This isn’t just about the war with Iran.

It’s about a world that is rapidly rearming.

Over the past few years we’ve seen:

Governments are realizing something uncomfortable: Peace is expensive.

But deterrence is even more expensive.

Which means defense spending is likely headed significantly higher over the next decade.

For investors, that creates a powerful long-term opportunity.

Defense stocks tend to move in long cycles tied to geopolitical shifts. And right now, that cycle appears to be accelerating.

In other words… The war headlines may dominate the news.

But the real investment story is what happens after the missiles stop flying. Because that’s when the biggest defense contracts start getting written.

If the war with Iran has made one thing clear, it’s this:

The world is running through weapons faster than it can produce them.

That creates a powerful investment theme - the global restocking cycle. Governments across the U.S., Europe, and Asia will likely spend years rebuilding stockpiles of missiles, drones, air defenses, and ammunition.

Here are several defense companies and ETFs worth watching as this cycle unfolds.

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

The largest defense contractor in the world and the prime contractor behind the Patriot missile system, F-35 fighter jet, and multiple missile defense systems. If missile interceptors and air defense become a priority, Lockheed is one of the biggest beneficiaries.

RTX Corp. (RTX)

Formerly Raytheon, RTX is deeply involved in Patriot missile interceptors, radar systems, and advanced missile technology. The company is also a major supplier of the precision munitions currently being deployed in the Middle East.

Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Northrop is a leader in missile defense, space systems, and next-generation military aircraft. Its work on missile interceptors and strategic deterrence systems positions it well if global tensions continue rising.

Rheinmetall (RNMBY)

The German defense giant has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of Europe’s military buildup. The company specializes in ammunition, armored vehicles, and artillery systems - exactly the type of equipment that must be replenished after modern conflicts.

BAE Systems (BAESY)

Another major European contractor with exposure to fighter jets, naval systems, cyber defense, and electronic warfare. NATO spending increases could drive years of contract growth.

Wars grab headlines.

But the real investment opportunity often comes after the fighting, when governments begin replenishing stockpiles and increasing military budgets.

The early stages of that cycle may already be underway.

And if history is any guide, defense spending cycles tend to last far longer than investors expect.

Here’s to the future, 
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research