Forget the doom and gloom – March’s retail sales came in hot

The American consumer makes up a large part of the U.S. economy. And despite rising volatility and negative headlines, Americans aren’t slowing down their spending one bit.

Here are the numbers… 

  • Retail sales climbed 1.4% in March – way better than Wall Street’s 1.2% estimate, and way above February’s weak 0.2%. 

  • On a year-over-year basis, we’re looking at a strong 4.6% increase.

Even when you strip out cars, which had their own monster month, sales still beat expectations – rising 0.5% versus the 0.3% forecast.

Now here’s the kicker: Auto and parts dealers exploded higher – up 5.3%. That’s no blip. Buyers are racing to lock in deals before potential Trump-era tariffs send prices through the roof. 

It’s like a Black Friday stampede in the middle of spring!

As economist Chris Rupkey said, “The rush is on like this is one gigantic clearance sale.” That’s the mindset right now – people expect prices to surge next year, so they’re grabbing what they can now.

Here are some other bright spots in the report…

  • Sporting goods and hobby stores: +2.4%

  • Building materials and garden centers: +3.3%

  • Restaurants and bars: +1.8%

  • Gas stations: -2.5% (but only because gas prices dropped)

The Bottom Line 

Despite all the noise – fears of recession, tariff headlines, weak consumer sentiment surveys – Americans are spending. And when consumers spend, the economy thrives.

On the flip side, were sales so impressive because the fear of tariffs led to spending now versus later? There’s a possibility that March’s sales could have cannibalized future sales. 

Only time will tell. But in the meantime, it’s important to see that the consumer is still alive and well.

Here’s to the future, 

Matt McCallEditor, Market Insights

P.S. There’s a lot going on right now – from tariffs to rate speculation and tech volatility.I know how overwhelming it can be. But you don’t have to go at it alone… 

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