The Metal No One is Watching... But Everyone Needs

Welcome back to Day Two of my brand-new series on the top megatrends shaping the markets in 2026. Yesterday, we kicked things off with European Rearmament. Today, we shift to a powerful multi-year theme that sits beneath nearly every innovation on the planet: Metals & Mining - and specifically, copper, the metal the modern world cannot function without.

Copper was the backbone of the first industrial revolution… and now it’s becoming the backbone of the AI revolution, electrification, grid modernization, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy all at once. And 2026 is looking like the year the market finally wakes up.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects metals prices to rise 7% in 2026, with nickel jumping 13% as Indonesia keeps its export ban in place and pushes ahead with its new nickel exchange.

Copper, lead, and zinc are expected to “sparkle” thanks to soaring demand from clean-energy companies and new investment by major miners like Vale. Meanwhile, gold and silver may cool slightly, and rare earths could remain subdued due to uncertain Chinese trade policy.

But within this broader picture, copper stands alone.

Not only is demand accelerating — supply is starting to fall apart.

China, the world’s largest producer, is expected to reduce output. And the catastrophic mud rush at Grasberg Block Cave, the world’s second-largest copper mine, is creating one of the most significant supply shocks in years. Analysts expect the loss of production to widen the global copper shortfall in 2026 and 2027, likely pushing copper to new record highs by October.

The market still hasn’t priced in the real driver of the coming copper boom: AI data centers.

Copper demand from data centers alone is projected to double — from roughly one million tonnes today to more than two million tonnes by 2030. These builds are extraordinarily copper-intensive:

And Goldman Sachs now estimates that AI will drive a 165% increase in data center power demand by the end of the decade.

Copper isn’t optional — it is the metal that carries the electricity, connects the racks, cools the systems, and supports the grid. Without copper, there is no AI revolution.

Add it all up:

…and you get a structural deficit the world can’t solve quickly.

Copper mines take 10+ years to build. The easy deposits are gone. And the U.S. is importing more copper than ever — hitting record highs in 2025.

This mismatch between demand and the world’s ability to supply it is what I call the Copper Gap — and it begins in earnest in 2026.

Copper is still priced like just another cyclical commodity. But, it’s not. It’s the foundation of a once-in-a-century electrification build-out plus the backbone of the AI megatrend.

In my Early Opportunities small cap research service, I’m recommending one specific copper stock that I believe is positioned to ride this multi-year supercycle — a company tied directly into data centers, energy transition, high-grade supply, AND most importantly based in North America.

This metals theme continues tomorrow as we dig deeper into the companies and categories that will lead the charge into 2026.

If you want this entire metals playbook - including my top copper pick - now is the time to join.

Talk soon,
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research