Let’s talk about something that’s flying under the radar right now - earnings.
While most headlines are focused on tariffs, the Fed, and politics, corporate America is quietly crushing expectations.
Through the first 156 reports this earnings season, we’re seeing the third-strongest EPS beat rate since 2001. That’s right - over 84% of companies are topping earnings estimates. Only the post-pandemic rebound quarters of late 2020 and early 2021 were stronger.
But here’s the kicker - it’s not just profits. Revenues are blowing past forecasts at a record 82.7% beat rate. That’s the highest on record going back more than two decades.
If you know anything about earnings, you know that’s a big deal.
(Source: Bespoke Premium)
It’s relatively easy for companies to manage costs to beat EPS targets. But revenue? That’s demand. That’s customers spending. That’s the heartbeat of the economy - and right now, it’s pumping stronger than ever.
Trade War Profits Are Back
Breaking news: China just walked away from key U.S. trade talks —
and markets are reacting fast.
Most investors see chaos… I see opportunity.
Because history shows every tariff cycle creates massive winners —
the companies positioned on the right side of the trade war.
In my latest video, I reveal the top “Tariff War” stocks set to surge as America
doubles down on manufacturing, energy, and supply-chain independence.
Guidance Turns Bullish — Confidence Is Building
More companies are raising forecasts than cutting them, and guidance cuts are sitting near historic lows - just 1.3%. That’s basically unheard of. In plain English: executives aren’t just reporting solid numbers; they’re confident about what’s coming next.
Now, sure - we’re still early in the season. Delta Air Lines (DAL) kicked things off back on October 9, and we’ve only heard from a small slice of the market so far. But the early signals are crystal clear: this is shaping up to be one of the strongest earnings backdrops we’ve seen in years.
That strength has already shown up in individual stocks.
Nine companies have popped 15% or more on earnings, even though some of them missed on revenue or guidance. That tells you how much optimism is baked into this market. When investors are willing to reward even “imperfect” reports, that’s bullish.
Of course, not every company is celebrating. A handful - five so far - have dropped 10% or more post-earnings. But interestingly, several of those actually beat expectations. That tells me we’re in a market where quality and leadership matter - not just the headline numbers.
Bottom line:
Despite all the noise out there, the data says corporate America is healthy, resilient, and growing. When 8 out of 10 companies are beating on both the top and bottom lines - and management teams are guiding higher - it’s a clear sign that the bull market still has fuel in the tank.
Stay focused on fundamentals.
Watch for companies that keep raising guidance and expanding revenue in this environment. Those are the stocks that can lead the next leg higher.
Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
Editor, Market Insights
