Yesterday, I wrote about the unusual market we’re experiencing.
While the Nasdaq-100 slipped into correction territory and many of the biggest AI winners remained under pressure, the equal-weight S&P 500 quietly climbed to a new all-time high. It was another reminder that headlines rarely tell the entire story.
This week offers another example.
Most investors will be focused on one company: SpaceX (SPCX).
The market’s shiniest new toy is scheduled to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company tonight after the closing bell, marking another milestone for one of the most remarkable businesses ever built.
Then, on Thursday, the first major share lockup expires, allowing approximately 911 million shares held by employees and early investors to become eligible for sale.
Wall Street will spend the week debating whether the earnings beat expectations, whether guidance is strong enough, and whether the lockup expiration creates selling pressure.
These are the wrong questions to be asking.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be paying attention, but the bigger story isn’t what SpaceX earned last quarter. It’s what the company represents.
Twenty years ago, the idea that a private company could dominate the global launch market, build the world’s largest satellite internet network, and become one of the most strategically important businesses on the planet would’ve sounded as science fictional as, say, building a self-sustaining city on Mars.
But believe it or not, SpaceX has fundamentally changed the economics of spaceflight through reusable rockets, launches more payload into orbit than any competitor, and provides communications infrastructure that governments and militaries increasingly rely upon.
Without SpaceX there is no Space Economy.
But it didn’t happen overnight.
It happened because the company continued investing in the future while many people doubted the vision.
That lesson extends far beyond the space industry.
One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that every great investment should move steadily higher. History tells us the exact opposite.
Amazon (AMZN) lost more than 90% of its value after the dot-com bubble burst before becoming one of the greatest investments of the past quarter century.
Tesla (TSLA) endured multiple declines of more than 50% before transforming the automobile industry.
NVIDIA (NVDA) has experienced several painful corrections on its way to becoming one of the world’s most valuable companies.
Every revolutionary company has periods where investors question the story.
That’s simply part of the process.
I expect we’ll hear plenty this week about insiders selling shares once the lockup expires. Some headlines will inevitably suggest that employees are “rushing for the exits.”
That’s usually an oversimplification.
Imagine working at a company for a decade, receiving much of your compensation in stock, and suddenly having the opportunity to diversify your financial future. Selling some shares doesn’t necessarily signal a lack of confidence in the business. It often reflects good financial planning.
The market, however, has a habit of confusing normal events with meaningful signals.
Could SpaceX experience volatility over the coming days? Absolutely.
Does that change my long-term view of the company or the industries it’s helping create? Not at all.
More importantly, SpaceX reminds us of something that will define investing over the next decade.
Innovation doesn’t happen one company at a time. It happens in waves.
The internet created opportunities far beyond Amazon.
Smartphones created opportunities far beyond Apple (AAPL).
AI will create opportunities far beyond NVIDIA.
And the space economy will extend far beyond SpaceX.
Launch providers, satellite manufacturers, communications companies, advanced materials, semiconductor suppliers, robotics firms, autonomous systems, and next-generation defense technologies all stand to benefit as space becomes an increasingly important part of the global economy.
That’s where my attention is focused.
I’m interested in finding the companies that help build the future, not simply the companies making the biggest headlines today.
That philosophy won’t be limited to the space industry, either. In the weeks ahead, we’ll spend time exploring AI, robotics, quantum computing, digital healthcare, autonomous transportation, and many other transformational trends that are still in the early stages of reshaping the global economy.
Some of those industries will experience corrections.
Some companies will disappoint.
That’s inevitable.
But history has consistently rewarded investors who recognized powerful technological shifts before they became obvious to everyone else.
That’s the goal of The First Move.
Not to predict every twist and turn of the market over the next week.
But to identify where the world is heading over the next decade, and position ourselves before the crowd gets there.
Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
Editor, Market Insights
