When the Taxi Driver Asks About Silver...

There’s a legendary Wall Street story that every serious investor should know - because it has repeated itself over and over again for a century.

The tale is most commonly credited to Joseph P. Kennedy Sr., the father of President John F. Kennedy and one of the great market operators of his era.

In 1929, just months before the Great Crash, Kennedy was getting his shoes shined when the shoeshine boy began offering him stock tips.

That was all he needed to hear.

Kennedy later explained that when everyday workers - shoeshine boys, taxi drivers, cooks - were confidently talking about stocks, the market had gone too far. Speculation had spilled from professionals to the general public.

So he acted.

Kennedy liquidated his stock portfolio near the top, protected his fortune, and reportedly even made money by selling stocks short as the market collapsed.

The lesson became immortalized on Wall Street:

When shoeshine boys give you stock tips - it’s time to sell.

You can replace shoeshine boys with waiters and Uber drivers this century.

The same observation was echoed by legendary investor Bernard Baruch, who noted that markets were in danger when taxi drivers, beggars, and barbers all had strong opinions on what to buy next.

Decades later, famed fund manager Peter Lynch echoed the same warning - markets are most dangerous when investing becomes a casual conversation everywhere you go.

That old Wall Street adage matters right now - because we’re seeing it play out again.

Silver has exploded higher in a short period of time – up over 4X in less than on year. The move itself was real and driven by forces that can be considered legitimate: inflation fears, geopolitical stress, central bank uncertainty, and a broader run in hard assets.

But something else has happened.

Silver is no longer a quiet trade.

It’s on financial TV nonstop. It’s all over social media. Headlines are screaming about shortages and massive upside. And most importantly - people who never cared about metals before are suddenly asking how to buy silver.

That’s the shoeshine boy moment.

As many of you know, I live in Nicaragua - just north of Costa Rica for those who may have struggled with geography. It’s probably the last place I’d expect to have people in my ear about silver.

And yet, that’s exactly what happened.

Just last night, I attended a real estate event and struck up a conversation with a very sharp gentleman who happened to be a former hedge fund manager. Naturally, the discussion drifted toward markets - and almost immediately, silver.

That’s when something interesting happened.

A group standing next to us - middle-aged men and women - overheard the conversation and jumped in, enthusiastically talking about how much money they were making in silver. I knew a few people in that group and, in all the years I’ve known them, I’ve never heard them talk about investments.

Earlier that same day, I received a text from a copywriter I worked with years ago. Out of the blue, he was bragging about how much his 401(k) was up thanks to silver - and confidently predicted it would double again from here.

The real market battle isn’t elections or rates — it’s resources.

It’s already reshaping the global economy and financial markets.

In this week’s podcast, I break down what most investors are missing — and why one of the market’s most crowded trades may be nearing bubble territory.

Then came the final moment.

After the event, I stopped at my local restaurant for a glass of wine while preparing for the next trading day. A young couple from Canada, visiting Nicaragua, struck up a conversation and asked what I did for a living. When I mentioned I work in the stock market, the very first question I got was:

“Do you own silver?”

Let that sink in.

I can honestly tell you I’ve had maybe three conversations about silver over the last 20 years.

And suddenly, I had three in one day.

Earlier that morning, sitting at a café when the market opened, I told a friend I was looking to short silver using a double-inverse ETF. I got busy, missed the trade - and within just over 24 hours, that setup would have been up roughly 50%.

I missed the trade. But more importantly, my instincts were right.

And once again, the theory held true.

When the masses pile into the same trade - when it becomes a casual conversation among people who never cared before - the risk is no longer to the upside.

If you want to be successful in markets, you can’t move with the crowd.

You have to think like a wolf - not the sheep.

Early in a trend, nobody is paying attention.

Late in a trend, everyone feels smart.

When an investment becomes common knowledge - when it turns into dinner-table talk - the risk-reward equation quietly flips. At that point, it doesn’t take bad news to send prices lower. It only takes the absence of new buyers.

Silver doesn’t have to “crash” to disappoint investors. Even a sharp pullback or long consolidation can punish those who chased the move late.

That’s usually how these trades end.

This doesn’t mean silver is dead forever. It means expectations have gotten stretched.

Smart money doesn’t chase what’s already exploded. It rotates, waits, and looks for the next asymmetric opportunity before it becomes a headline.

So if silver is suddenly being discussed by your Uber driver, your barber, and your group chat - remember Joseph Kennedy.

History doesn’t repeat exactly.

But in markets, it rhymes.

And when everyone is talking about the same trade, it’s usually time to stop listening - and start thinking.

Here’s to your future,
Matt McCall
Founder, NXT Wave Research